The PP and the PSOE, alarmed by the fall of bipartisanship, will review their strategy to stop the bleeding

Years ago, the end of bipartisanship was proclaimed, understood as the two-party hegemony take turns in power with comfortable majorities. The PP and the PSOE continue to take turns, but it is increasingly difficult for them to form stable majorities in the various governments and institutions.

The result of the regional elections in Castile and León is considered by popular and socialist leaders as an important step in this process of instability and, therefore, the elections have raised concerns, internal debates and uncertainties in both major parties considering how to complete congressional majorities in future general elections and how to deal with this new scenario.

For the rise of Vox, consolidating its 15% in different communities, forcing the PP to make uncomfortable agreements; due to the lack of weight of United We Can, which may prevent the PSOE from completing left-wing majorities and, above all, due to the rise of local candidates such as Soria Now, For Ávila and the Union of the Leonese Peoplein the footsteps of Teruel Existe.

In recent years, bipartisanship has been shattered by the irruption of Ciudadanos and Podemos, which at some point raised the possibility of taking the PP and PSOE by surprise. The two major parties have persisted, but this fragmentation has already caused two repeat elections.

Ciudadanos is now in the dissolution phase and United We Can have results from previous United Leftbut the two-party system continues to collapse due to the appearance of localist formations and, moreover, the two major parties are finding it increasingly difficult to get closer to stable majorities with potential partners.

new strategies

PP and PSOE sources admit that Sunday’s results will provoke changes in their strategies and positions for the rest of the legislature, thinking of the legislative elections at the end of 2023.

Regarding Vox, the PP has verified that the electoral cycle it has launched until the general elections leads to inevitable agreements in the communities with the extreme right, which presents contraindications in its strategy. Once Ciudadanos has been reduced to a minimum, Vox asserts itself as the electoral rival of the PP, consolidating in several municipalities the 15% of votes it obtained in the legislative elections.

The popular ruled with Jose Maria Aznar Yes Mariano Rajoy when the PP did not compete with other parties in its ideological spectrum, with the sole exception of the 2016 legislature where they remained in 137 seats and Ciudadanos had 32 deputies with 13% of the vote. Vox has 52 seats with 15% and with a more homogeneous distribution in the different communities.

Now the PP has no choice but to reach 176 deputies in 2023 adding its seats to those of Santiago Abascal’s partywith the contraindications that it presents even in its relations with the European People’s Party, which turns its back on far-right parties in the EU.

Diaz’s projects

Regarding the PSOE, the analysis of Sunday’s results shows that not only is there no setback in its candidacy due to the wear and tear of the Government, but also that United We Can languishes in many communities, which could prevent them from joining the reissue of their coalition after the next legislative elections. The fall of Castilla y León was preceded by poor results in Madrid, Galicia, Catalonia and the Basque Country, in a process of sustained decline.

For this reason, the result also caused a stir in the spectrum of the PSOE left. Pablo Iglesias warned that the broad front of Yolanda Diaz to stop the rise of PP and Vox and the second vice president wrote on Twitter: “Time for deep reflection. Citizens who want change and demand transformational ambition are there waiting. We just have to look in the right place and rise to the occasion.

United sources We can consider as practical that Diaz is accelerating his plans form a political project on the left of the PSOE. His plan was to complete the conception of his “listening process” or tour in Spain in a month and a half, to present his project before the end of the year. One of its drawbacks is that if the elections in Andalusia take place in the fall, it will be difficult to avoid participating in this campaign as it has done in Castilla y León to preserve itself.

The other area of ​​concern for both major parties is the proliferation of local candidates. In this case, these lists obtained seven seats this Sunday, in line with what happened at the time with Teruel Exists, which managed to be the list with the most votes in this constituency.

On Sunday, Soria already obtained 42.5% of the votes in this province, which represents three out of five seats. With these data in general, one of the two main parties would find itself without representation in this constituency which distributes only two seats in Congress and where the two main parties always share one each.

In the last legislative elections, the PP won 44.9% of the vote, almost as many as Soria Ya has now.

The Empty Spain bid failed to win seats on Sunday, but in Burgos it won 5.57% of the vote, above Ciudadanos and with almost the same votes as United We Can.

And that one of the reasons why Alfonso Fernandez Manueco supported the early appeal is that he intended to take the candidacies of so-called emptied Spain by surprise to prevent them from organizing.

From now on, the PP and the PSOE agree in fearing that the proliferation of these candidacies will extend to other communities and provinces, such as Jaén or Cuenca, among others.

regional funding

Government sources assure that this result in Castilla y León forces them to analyze their priorities and strategies, aware of the need to focus on these provinces and to qualify the presence on their agendas of issues related, for example, to Catalonia.

The translation of this analysis would be reflected, for example, in the next revision of the regional financing system, with different criteria from the traditional ones, starting with the weight in the votes of the nationalist or separatist options of the so-called historic communities, which guaranteed up to now nominations and governments when there is no absolute majority.

The vote for these lists and the vote for Vox are perceived by the two major parties as a channeling of citizen anger.

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