Third quarter GDP figures show mixed results as eurozone inflation picks up again

“The start of the day on the euro zone’s economic calendar was busy this morning.

Key statistics included 3rd quarterly GDP figures for France, Germany, Spain and the euro area.

Member States

In the 3rd quarter, the Spanish economy grew 2.00% quarter-on-quarter against a forecast of 2.7%. The economy grew 1.1% in the previous quarter.

The French economy grew by 3.0% during the quarter against 2.1% expected. In the 2sd quarter, the economy grew 1.2%.

For Germany, the economy grew 1.8% quarter on quarter, below the 2.2% forecast. In the previous quarter, the economy grew 1.9%.

The euro zone

In the 3rd quarter, the euro area economy grew 2.2% quarter on quarter. The economy grew 2.1% in the 2sd trimester. Year on year, the economy grew by 3.7%.

According to Eurostat,

Among Member States, with data available for the 3rd trimester:

  • Austria (+ 3.3%) recorded the largest increase, quarter on quarter, followed by France (+ 3.0%) and Portugal (+ 2.9%).
  • Latvia (+ 0.3%) and Lithuania (+ 0.0%) recorded the lowest GDPs.

In a context of mixed GDP, inflation in the euro zone accelerated again.

According to preliminary figures, the euro zone’s annual inflation rate accelerated from 3.4% to 4.1%. Economists had forecast a recovery to 3.7%.

According to Eurostat,

  • Forecasts predict that energy will have the highest annual rate in October of 23.5% compared to 17.6% in September.
  • For services, the annual inflation rate is expected at 2.1% against 1.7% in September.
  • The annual inflation rate for non-energy industrial goods is expected to decline from 2.1% in September to 2.0% in October.
  • Food, alcohol and tobacco are expected to see annual inflation stable at 2.0%.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.8% after rising 0.5% in September.

Other statistics

French consumer spending and Italian inflation figures were also released but fell back on that day.

Market impact

Prior to trade data, the Euro hit a pre-statistical and current high of $ 1.16901 before reversing.

In response to today’s stats, the EUR hit a post-stat high of $ 1.16756 before falling to a current and post-stat low of $ 1.16462.

At the time of this writing, the Euro was down 0.25% to $ 1.16511.

Following

Inflation, personal spending, Chicago PMI and US consumer confidence figures will spark interest.

Expect inflation and personal spending to have the biggest impact on the markets.

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